EUR/USD Forecast: Advances as US data, dovish Fed signal rate cut

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Apr 30, 2026EUR/USD advances as ECB holds rates, Dollar softens on mixed data-0.8%
• Jun 23, 2025US Dollar (USD) Erases Gain as Fed's Bowman Signal July Rate Cut Support - Bloomberg-1.1%
• Jun 3, 2024Gold rises as soft US economic data spurs Fed rate cut bets+1.2%
• Feb 28, 2020Forex: US Dollar's Appeal Fades As Rate Cut Looms-0.5%
• Dec 13, 2023Dollar drops as Fed signals coming rate cuts-1.0%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Apr 30, 2026EUR/USD advances as ECB holds rates, Dollar softens on mixed data+0.5%
• Feb 28, 2020Forex: US Dollar's Appeal Fades As Rate Cut Looms+2.0%
• Dec 13, 2023Dollar drops as Fed signals coming rate cuts+1.7%
• Dec 14, 2023US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Persists Following Fed and ECB+1.5%
• Nov 27, 2023US dollar weakens as Fed rate cut view weighs-0.5%