
Deficient rainfall and rising production costs are pushing food prices higher in India, with food inflation possibly reaching 10% in Q4 2026. Rainfall in Jalna district is about 48% below average, hampering rabi sowing in western and southern regions.
Lower rabi planting and tighter supply of wheat, rice and pulses could support Indian grain and feed prices, and the rupee weakness adds upward pressure on import costs.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.