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Rystad Energy says oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are settling into a fragile, partial recovery rather than a full return to pre-war levels. Gulf crude exports have kept rising even as attacks on commercial ships intensify and shipping costs climb.
OPEC+ decided to keep output steady for December after a 188,000 b/d increase in September.
Partial Hormuz recovery limits the supply loss, but persistent attack risk and higher freight costs keep crude and diesel prices supported, raising the cost of energy and transport inputs for feed production and delivery.
ajot.comAJOTNov 3, 2026After 654 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.6% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 624 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.2% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 247 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -3.6% to +9.2%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
