Signal of cooling early in November; target to hold dong depreciation under 3% by year-end

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Aug 27, 2021Dollar depreciation unlikely to last | Capital Economics-0.9%
• Jun 26, 2025Fed rate cuts, dollar depreciation to drive commodity rally, says Kunal Shah of Nirmal Bang - CNBC TV18-0.9%
• Jul 13, 2023Dollar buckles on US disinflation signs as Fed nears end of hiking cycle-0.2%
• Jun 28, 2017The situation in the US is improving because of the precipitation, in Ukraine however it does not rain+0.1%
• Sep 29, 2025Why is the exchange rate in Vietnam rising rapidly despite the depreciation of the US dollar internationally?-0.3%

After 73 past neutral macro events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.

• Aug 2, 2022Argentina’s Cash Needed to Avert Devaluation is Drying Up+1.9%
• Jul 31, 2025U.S. dollar exchange rate in Argentina hits all-time high of AR$1,380 - Buenos Aires Herald+2.6%
• Oct 30, 2024Argentina's Milei Taps Unseasonal Source in Search of Dollars: Shock Therapy | Financial Post-0.8%
• Jul 25, 2023Argentine IMF concessions risk further fueling red hot inflation+0.7%
• Mar 3, 2020President Fernandez tries to slay Argentina’s inflation dragon | Business and Economy | Al Jazeera-1.9%