◂ Event Timeline

Nov 3, 2026MACROBrazil

Market estimate for year-end 2026 dollar rises from R$5.05 to R$5.34 in central bank Focus

The median market forecast for the dollar at end-2026 in the central bank's Focus survey rose from R$5.05 to R$5.34. Forecasts for end-2027, 2028 and 2029 also increased.

It is the first Focus report with responses collected after Lula's reelection.

WHY IT MATTERS

Higher expected dollar levels raise the Brazilian currency cost of imported feed ingredients and other inputs, which can feed into local feed prices.

AFFECTSUSDBRL▲

2 SOURCES
economia.uol.com.brBrasíliaNov 3, 2026
broadcast.com.brNov 3, 2026

Price reaction & history

USDBRL▲bullish

After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

Nov 19, 2025Dollar rises in the Brazilian market following international movement | Brasil 247+1.3%
Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank FX, bond intervention fails to prevent market rout+1.1%
Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday+4.1%
Aug 30, 2024Spot dollar closes higher for the 5th session despite interventions by the Central Bank | Brasil 247-0.8%
Sep 30, 2019USD/BRL: Year end forecast raised by 10-cents to 3.90 - Rabobank - Forex Crunch-2.3%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

USDBRL · GP ▸

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