IKAR Cuts Base Estimate of Russia's 2026/27 Wheat Export Potential to 39.5 Million Tonnes

After 283 past bullish logistics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Dec 10, 2020U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021 - U.S. Wheat Associates-1.5%
• Feb 10, 2023Rouen's weekly wheat exports drop to 39,700 tonnes - Fastmarkets-2.5%
• Jun 28, 2018Russia Taps Smaller Ports to Keep Up Record Wheat Export Pace - Bloomberg-4.2%
• Jun 13, 2025Nibulon to Export 1 Million Tons of Grain Via Black Sea Port of Chornomorsk+1.4%
• Aug 25, 2026Russia’s wheat exports to Egypt: Why shipping costs are rising despite lower prices+1.7%

After 22 past bullish logistics events, KWHEAT moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +3.9% over 20.

• Dec 10, 2020U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021 - U.S. Wheat Associates+2.0%
• Jun 24, 2020Limited Elevation Capacity Supports Gulf Wheat Export Basis - U.S. Wheat Associates+0.1%
• Sep 2, 2020Secondary Rail Rates, Tight Elevation Capacity Continue to Support Wheat Export Prices - U.S. Wheat Associates-2.1%
• Oct 15, 2020U.S. Wheat Export Prices Firm on Higher Futures Prices and Export Basis Values - U.S. Wheat Associates+6.4%
• Mar 9, 2022Explainer: India's wheat exports surge as world prices soar | Reuters-2.4%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 285 past bullish logistics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Oct 23, 2026Even an elevenfold increase in Baltic port shipments fails to offset Russia’s loss of Black Sea export capacity-0.6%
• Aug 4, 2026Russia’s grain exports fell 38% in July due to port attacks-0.5%
• Jun 24, 2020Limited Elevation Capacity Supports Gulf Wheat Export Basis - U.S. Wheat Associates+2.4%
• Oct 31, 2022Despite Russia's Black Sea Decision, Grain Still Shipping Out of Ukrainian Ports Monday-2.2%
• Nov 2, 2016Economic impact of inland waterway disruptions: Potentially billions+4.4%