Limited Elevation Capacity Supports Gulf Wheat Export Basis

After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Sep 2, 2020Secondary Rail Rates, Tight Elevation Capacity Continue to Support Wheat Export Prices - U.S. Wheat Associates+9.4%
• Dec 10, 2020U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021 - U.S. Wheat Associates-1.5%
• Oct 15, 2020U.S. Wheat Export Prices Firm on Higher Futures Prices and Export Basis Values - U.S. Wheat Associates+1.9%
• Oct 9, 2026As Black Sea routes stall, Russian Baltic ports ramp up grain capacity by 170 per cent | World Ports Organization+4.0%
• Mar 1, 2026Logistics disruptions keep Ukraine wheat exports at low levels, union says+1.6%

After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.

• Feb 13, 2020Mississippi River project approved, more corn and soybean export capacity expected+0.0%
• Dec 4, 2025Mississippi River Crisis Threatens U.S. Grain Exports and Farm Logistics - Agrolatam-2.2%
• Jun 4, 2019Strike halts grain exports in Argentina - U.S. Identity Preserved Alliance-2.3%
• Feb 11, 2025Mississippi Levels Disrupt Exports, Shipments - Decision Innovation Solutions-1.0%
• Nov 14, 2024Mississippi River levels lift export opportunity-1.4%

After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Oct 23, 2026Even an elevenfold increase in Baltic port shipments fails to offset Russia’s loss of Black Sea export capacity-0.6%
• Feb 13, 2020Mississippi River project approved, more corn and soybean export capacity expected+1.0%
• Jul 28, 2026Ukraine: suspension of shipping to Black Sea ports and the associated risks | OSW Centre for Eastern Studies-1.7%
• Dec 4, 2025Mississippi River Crisis Threatens U.S. Grain Exports and Farm Logistics - Agrolatam+0.4%
• Apr 28, 2020Ukraine's Apr 18-24 sea port grain exports down 36% wk/wk — Latifundist.com+1.5%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.