Even an elevenfold increase in Baltic port shipments fails to offset Russia’s loss of Black Sea export capacity

After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted | Reuters+2.4%
• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-0.7%
• Oct 9, 2026As Black Sea routes stall, Russian Baltic ports ramp up grain capacity by 170 per cent | World Ports Organization+4.0%
• Sep 12, 2026Russia Turns to Far East to Export Grain Amid Black Sea Strikes - Bloomberg-1.2%
• Feb 24, 2026Russian wheat prices hold as storms snarl Black Sea shipments | World Ports Organization+0.6%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-1.2%
• Aug 4, 2026Russia’s grain exports fell 38% in July due to port attacks-0.5%
• Oct 31, 2022Despite Russia's Black Sea Decision, Grain Still Shipping Out of Ukrainian Ports Monday-2.2%
• Aug 4, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine turns to alternative grain export routes, counts losses as Russia blocks ports | Reuters-0.5%
• Jul 28, 2026Ukraine: suspension of shipping to Black Sea ports and the associated risks | OSW Centre for Eastern Studies-1.7%