U.S. Wheat Export Prices Firm on Higher Futures Prices and Export Basis Values

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 22 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +3.9% over 20.

• Dec 10, 2020U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021 - U.S. Wheat Associates+2.0%
• Jun 24, 2020Limited Elevation Capacity Supports Gulf Wheat Export Basis - U.S. Wheat Associates+0.1%
• Sep 2, 2020Secondary Rail Rates, Tight Elevation Capacity Continue to Support Wheat Export Prices - U.S. Wheat Associates-2.1%
• Mar 9, 2022Explainer: India's wheat exports surge as world prices soar | Reuters-2.4%
• Jan 31, 2023Wheat prices on world exchanges have risen, and in Ukraine they are pressured by the delay in the approach of the courts+0.3%

After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Dec 10, 2020U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021 - U.S. Wheat Associates-1.5%
• Jun 24, 2020Limited Elevation Capacity Supports Gulf Wheat Export Basis - U.S. Wheat Associates+0.3%
• Sep 2, 2020Secondary Rail Rates, Tight Elevation Capacity Continue to Support Wheat Export Prices - U.S. Wheat Associates+9.4%
• Mar 9, 2022Explainer: India's wheat exports surge as world prices soar | Reuters-3.1%
• Mar 8, 2026A bitter harvest for wheat as war pops export dreams | Mint+0.6%