
Weak monsoon rains have left farmers in southern and western India short of water for rabi sowing, with Jalna district about 48 percent below average rainfall. Prices of sugar, pulses, wheat and rice have risen while El Niño conditions are strengthening across Asia.
Lower expected yields could keep food inflation elevated into the coming months.
Reduced sowing and lower yields tighten Indian wheat and rice supplies and can prompt import demand or export restrictions, supporting world grain prices and feed costs.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.