Mixed weather across the Corn Belt is affecting the corn and soybean fill period, with excess rain and flooding in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and dryness in the northern Midwest. Extreme heat persists in the Southern Plains, and dryness is affecting the Black Sea region.
Uneven moisture and heat during grain fill create yield risk for corn and soybeans, which supports prices. The Black Sea dryness could also tighten wheat supplies.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.