Gold falls as higher oil stokes inflation fears ahead of US midterms

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 7, 2022Euro slides as war in Ukraine stokes fears of inflationary shock-5.5%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil settles up nearly 6% as investors fear further Middle East escalation | Reuters+10.2%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices jump 4% as fresh US-Iran fighting stokes supply fears+9.6%
• May 25, 2018Contact Us - Sherbrooke Record - Fears of prolonged Red Sea crisis fuel inflation fears, as oil, retail shipping delays begin to rise-7.0%
• Jun 24, 2019U.S. oil ends higher, but Brent falls as Trump administration announces additional Iran sanctions - MarketWatch+1.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2026Oil settles up nearly 6% as investors fear further Middle East escalation | Reuters+15.0%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices jump 4% as fresh US-Iran fighting stokes supply fears+10.8%
• Feb 13, 2023Oil edges higher as market weighs Russian supply cuts amid demand fears | Reuters-4.0%
• Oct 31, 2024Oil Rises On Middle East Conflict Escalation Fears+3.9%
• Apr 30, 2026Oil retreats after hitting four-year high on concern of US-Iran war escalation | Reuters-15.3%

After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, DXY moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 7, 2022Euro slides as war in Ukraine stokes fears of inflationary shock+0.3%
• Mar 2, 2026Dollar (USD) Gains as Higher Oil Prices Damp Bets on Fed Rate Cuts - Bloomberg+1.4%
• Mar 25, 2026GBP/USD slips as risk aversion, sticky UK inflation lift US Dollar+0.8%
• Apr 26, 2024Oil settles higher on supply concerns in the Mideast, economic woes subdue gains | Reuters-0.3%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil jumps, dollar rallies with gold as conflict grips Middle East | Reuters+1.4%