The US dollar weakened as investors weighed uncertainty over US-Iran tensions and the US midterm elections, with polls suggesting Democrats could win the House. The euro rose to $1.1201, the pound to $1.3421, and the Australian dollar fell 0.5% after the RBA hike, while a senior Iranian official said the two sides remained far from a deal.
A weaker dollar supports dollar-priced commodities such as grains and oilseeds for non-US buyers, while the Gulf diplomacy that has lowered oil prices reduces input and freight cost pressure. Outcomes on the Iran talks and the midterms could shift the dollar direction quickly.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 102 past neutral macro events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.