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The yuan rose sharply for two consecutive days to near two-month highs, catching speculators off guard who had bet on further weakness tied to capital outflows from China. The dollar's unexpectedly large falls against the yuan spilled over into other markets, easing the dollar off a 14-year peak.
A firmer yuan and softer dollar reduce pressure on dollar-priced feed commodities and can support Chinese import demand, though the move was a short-term reversal.
reuters.comJan 5, 2017After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 362 past bearish macro events, USDCNY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The yuan's sharp two-day jump on Jan 5 forced speculators to cover shorts and pushed the dollar down against the yuan, directly explaining the CNY per USD decline.
