Brazilian financial markets suffered a sharp sell-off after Lula's election victory on October 26, with the Ibovespa suffering its biggest daily loss since March 2020 and the spot dollar climbing above R$5.40. Analysts say stabilisation depends on the government signalling fiscal adjustment.
Currency depreciation and fiscal uncertainty raise Brazilian input costs and can boost the competitiveness of Brazilian soybean and corn exports, while also affecting domestic feed prices.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.