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ING reports that metals are near record highs, agricultural markets trade at multiyear highs, and oil has recovered strongly after the pandemic. Post-Covid restocking and Chinese stimulus support demand, though ING sees a cyclical uplift rather than a super-cycle.
Strong demand recovery supports broad commodity prices including feed grains, but ING's cyclical view implies limited long-term upside once restocking ends.
think.ing.comWarren PattersonMay 6, 2021After 151 past bullish macro events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, WTI moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
