
Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting reached 53% of the forecast area through Thursday October 29, according to consultancy AgRural, up 13 percentage points from the prior week and ahead of 47% a year earlier. Rains in Mato Grosso eased replanting worries, while dryness in Matopiba slowed sowing and wet, cloudy weather limited progress in the South.
Corn planting in the Center-South reached 63% of estimated area.
Faster planting and rains that reduce replanting risk point to a timely Brazilian soybean crop, which tends to weigh on soybean meal and corn prices if it holds. Delays in Matopiba and the South are a localized risk to watch.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.