
The dollar was on the defensive in markets cautious about US-Iran tensions and the upcoming midterm elections, while the Aussie dipped after the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates as expected. Brent rose 0.5% to $105.25 after US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, and China's offshore yuan weakened after the PBOC raised its FX reserve requirement ratio.
Currency moves and oil prices feed into feed costs and import affordability for buyers in dollar-linked markets, and the yuan and Aussie moves affect Chinese and Australian demand expectations.
After 323 past bullish macro events, BRENT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, DXY moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 362 past bearish macro events, USDCNY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.