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JPMorgan raised its end-2025 yuan forecast to 7.15 per dollar from 7.30, and expects a gentle downtrend to 7.10 by mid-2026. The bank cited easing US-China trade war risks and a broader de-dollarisation trend.
A forecast of a stronger yuan modestly lowers China's dollar-priced import costs over time, a minor supportive factor for import demand for grains and meal.
After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.