Dollar falls ahead of US midterms as oil plummets

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2018Oil prices fall as US stock market slumps and dollar strengthens-7.0%
• May 30, 2023Canadian dollar dips as oil prices fall more than 4%-0.4%
• Nov 1, 2023Oil falls to settle at 3-week low as Fed policy stance lifts dollar-4.5%
• Jan 27, 2017Canadian dollar weakens as oil falls, investors brace for Poloz+0.2%
• Dec 15, 2021Canadian dollar at nearly 3-month low as oil prices fall | Reuters+0.7%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2018Oil prices fall as US stock market slumps and dollar strengthens-6.3%
• Nov 1, 2023Oil falls to settle at 3-week low as Fed policy stance lifts dollar-5.3%
• Dec 6, 2022Ringgit ends lower against US dollar as oil prices decline | Malay Mail-6.1%
• Dec 7, 2020Ringgit falls against US dollar on lack of demand, lower Fitch downgrade | Malaysia now+1.7%
• Dec 15, 2022Oil prices slid 2% as dollar firms and central banks hike interest rates-2.2%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• May 1, 2025Dollar falls broadly ahead of US data, tariff uncertainty-0.4%
• Mar 21, 2023Dollar, Sterling Fall Ahead Of Fed, BoE Meetings Amid Banking Stress-0.6%
• Mar 22, 2023Dollar falls after Fed raises rates, indicates one more hike ahead-1.0%
• Oct 31, 2023US dollar falls as markets believe Fed is done hiking rates | Reuters-1.4%
• Aug 6, 2025Dollar falls as traders bet on more rate cuts-0.5%