
The dollar and sterling fell as bets grew that banking stress could limit further Fed and Bank of England rate hikes. Markets priced an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike, and Moody's cut its outlook on the US banking system to negative.
Lower rate expectations and a softer dollar tend to support dollar-denominated grain and meal prices, while banking stress adds volatility to credit conditions for feed buyers.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.