
U.S. milk production rose 2.4% in August from a year earlier, with the milking herd up 174,000 head to 9.717 million cows. The Dairy Margin Coverage margin fell to $9.34 per hundredweight from $9.93 in July as the All-Milk price dropped 50 cents to $19.80 and feed costs rose to $10.46.
Growing milk supply alongside lower milk prices points to softer dairy demand relative to output, which weighs on the milk price. Producers' margins are squeezed, though the report expects moderating feed costs to help in November and December.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.