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USDA raised its 2025 and 2026 milk production forecasts on higher output per cow and a growing herd. It also lowered the all-milk price forecast to $21.05 per cwt for 2025 and $19.25 for 2026.
Higher production and lower forecast prices point to tighter producer margins in 2026, with Class III supported by whey while Class IV weakens.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.