
USDA's April 2024 Dairy Outlook cut its 2024 milk production forecast to 226.3 billion pounds on slower milk yield per cow, with cow numbers unchanged. Price forecasts were mixed: Cheddar and NDM lower, butter higher, and the Class III forecast fell to $16.20 per cwt.
A lower production forecast is supportive for dairy prices, but the lower Cheddar and whey forecasts point to weaker feed-ingredient demand from the cheese side. Net effect on milk prices is mixed.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.