The European Commission projects EU-27 milk production will rise 1% in 2021, driven by a 2% gain in yields despite a 1% fall in the dairy herd. EU butter exports are forecast to rise 4% and cheese exports 4%, with whey exports up 5%.
Foodservice recovery is expected to lift EU butter and cheese consumption.
Higher EU milk output and stronger export flows add supply to world dairy markets, but expected foodservice recovery and butter demand offset much of the effect.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.