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The ONI index is at +2.2, a strong El Niño, but rainfall across Malaysia and Indonesia is broadly normal. Malaysia's September palm oil output rose 16.5% month on month, and closing stocks climbed 31.9% to 2,163,173 tonnes.
Normal rain keeps near-term palm output building, and rising Malaysian stocks are bearish for palm oil prices. Yield risk from El Niño is expected to appear later, as drought effects lag by months.
palmoileconomics.comNov 2, 2026After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
