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US ammonia prices have risen 45% since late June. Trinidad is facing natural gas shortages, and its ammonia imports have fallen 34%.
Ammonia is the base for nitrogen fertilizers, so tighter supply raises US farmers' input costs and could pressure margins for feed grain production. Gas-linked feedstock costs also keep nitrogen prices firm.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.