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USDA estimates 61 percent of the current U.S. soybean crop will be crushed domestically, versus 37 percent exported as whole beans. The American Soybean Association's chief economist attributes the shift to renewable diesel demand and federal biofuel policies, including higher EPA blending requirements and the 45Z clean fuel credit.
Structural demand for soybean oil and meal is rising domestically while whole-bean export demand, especially from China, stagnates, supporting crush margins and local basis, which is supportive for meal supply and soybean oil prices.
brownfieldagnews.comCarah HartNov 2, 2026After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
