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Fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been effectively halted for a second straight month, with September and October flows falling to zero. Sulfur prices more than doubled to over $1,000/t, and phosphate fertilizer prices rose 25-30%.
Mosaic has suspended part of its phosphate output at its South Fort Meade plant in Florida.
Sulfur is a key input for phosphate production, so the supply loss raises fertilizer costs and reduces output, pushing phosphate and urea prices higher. Higher fertilizer costs also eventually feed into planting costs and grain and oilseed economics.
landlord.uaМарченко НаталіяNov 2, 2026After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
