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Citigroup's US FX desk says the carry trade will keep offering opportunities in Latin America thanks to high emerging-market interest rates, though returns are unlikely to match recent years. Citi is positive on the Colombian peso, Brazilian real and Argentine peso against the dollar, and expects the dollar to weaken slightly after the Federal Reserve held rates last week.
A stable carry trade supports demand for Latin American currencies, which tends to ease import costs for feed buyers in Brazil, Colombia and Argentina. A weaker dollar would also lift USD-priced commodities from the region, but the gains are expected to be modest.
bloomberglinea.comAlice Atkins, Anya AndrianovaNov 2, 2026After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
