Latin American assets rally on Fed cut, Brazil's cenbank maintains pause

After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2022Brazilian assets rally in volatile session after Lula elected president-5.8%
• Nov 16, 2018Brazil gains on Bolsonaro's choice to head central bank, Mexican peso falls+1.0%
• Jun 29, 2022Fed rate hike bets hit Latam assets; Brazil's real jumps | Financial Post+3.9%
• Apr 17, 2017EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil real jumps on central bank intervention+0.1%
• Sep 18, 2023Most Latin American currencies up ahead of central bank policy decisions+0.9%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Aug 30, 2023EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies up on weaker dollar; Brazil's real lags on rate-cut speculation+1.3%
• Nov 24, 2023Gold leaps above $2,000 as dollar weakens on Fed pause bets | Reuters-0.4%
• Feb 11, 2025Dollar falls as tariff concerns ease, Fed's Powell stays patient on rate cuts | Reuters-1.0%
• Aug 19, 2024Sterling hits one-month high as Fed rate cut bets weigh on dollar | Reuters-0.8%
• Sep 18, 2023Most Latin American currencies up ahead of central bank policy decisions+0.3%