
Most Latin American currencies gained on Monday as the dollar was subdued, extending gains to a sixth straight session, the longest winning streak since April. The MSCI index rose 0.3% ahead of a week of major central bank decisions, with the Brazilian real rising before a local rate announcement.
A firmer Latin American currency basket, especially the real, makes dollar-priced exports from Brazil and Argentina more competitive, which can weigh on soybean and corn export prices in US dollar terms.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.