Latin American currencies strengthened on Friday after weaker-than-expected US fourth-quarter GDP growth of 1.9% annualized reduced expectations of rapid Fed rate hikes. The Brazilian real and Mexican peso each rose about 1%, while the Colombian peso gained less due to lower oil prices.
A firmer real reduces the competitiveness of Brazilian grain and oilseed exports, a mildly bearish factor for global soy and corn prices. Weaker US rate expectations also tend to support commodity prices broadly.
After 213 past bearish macro events, USDBRL moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.