
The European Commission lowered its 2026/27 EU corn forecast to 47 million tonnes from 48.3 million in September, a cut of 2.7%. It also reduced soft wheat production to 123.7 million tonnes from 124.2 million and ending stocks to 10.6 million from 11.4 million, while raising barley output by 700,000 tonnes.
Lower EU corn and wheat output points to more imports of feed grain, including Ukrainian supply, and tighter European stocks. Higher barley output partly offsets the feed grain shortfall.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.