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Ghana's meteorological agency puts the probability of a very strong El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027 at about 96%. Hotter, drier conditions are expected from November through April, with heat stress in the north from February to April.
The agency warns that risks to crops, water supply, and hydropower are elevated but not certain.
Drought in Ghana could cut local maize and food crop output and raise import needs in West Africa. Hydropower shortfalls could also raise electricity costs for farmers and feed millers.
africasustainabilitymatters.comDr. Edward MungaiNov 2, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
