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India's 2026 southwest monsoon ended 13% below the long-period average, the fourth lowest since 2001. Reservoir storage is well below normal, and below-normal October rain is forecast.
Kharif sowing is down only 1% so far, but rabi planting is expected to shift toward drought-tolerant crops.
Weak monsoon rainfall and low reservoir levels can cut Indian rice and pulse output and reduce water-intensive rabi planting. Tighter domestic supply could support rice prices and Indian feed-grain demand.
sugaronline.comUSDANov 2, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
