Can gold extend its rebound from the YTD low beyond $3,900 as Fed hike bets limit gains?

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jun 8, 2020Gold gains as investors bet on dovish signals from Fed - Markets - Business Recorder+0.7%
• Jul 27, 2017Pound hits 10-month high against dollar after Fed caution – as it happened | Business | The Guardian-0.6%
• Jul 29, 2026Gold trims gain as Fed holds rates, signals hike support-0.9%
• Aug 1, 2024Gold extends record rally on Fed rate-cut bets, softer dollar-0.1%
• Mar 20, 2025Gold Hits Record High As Fed Signals Rate Cuts Amid Economic Tensions+0.3%

After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Nov 8, 2018Canadian dollar hits eight-week low as U.S. Fed affirms rate hike policy - The Globe and Mail-8.9%
• Apr 17, 2023Canadian dollar slips, pressured by Fed rate hike bets - The Globe and Mail-5.7%
• Jul 28, 2026Canadian dollar rebounds from two-week low ahead of Fed decision | Reuters+2.0%
• May 31, 2023Canadian dollar pares monthly decline as rate hike bets climb - The Globe and Mail+3.3%
• Feb 15, 2023Canadian dollar weakens as U.S. data boosts Fed rate hike prospects - The Globe and Mail-6.5%