
A Cerasa Experience study says a strong El Niño could reduce soybean yields in at least 13 Brazilian states, with Mato Grosso and Goiás facing losses above 400,000 tonnes. Brazil's crop could fall to 163 million tonnes in that scenario.
A possible drop to 163 million tonnes would be a significant supply loss for world soybean markets, supporting prices if the El Niño impact materializes.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.