
A farmdoc daily analysis examines whether a third consecutive La Niña in 2022 would affect soybean yields in the US, Brazil and Argentina. It compares deviations from yield trend over the past 30 years in these three largest soybean producers.
Yield shortfalls in the top soybean exporters would tighten global supply and support soybean and meal prices, though the analysis itself is a forecast rather than a confirmed loss.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.