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A Rabobank outlook published in Feed & Grain says weather, trade headwinds and currency moves could disrupt global food prices. It cites a 75% chance of La Niña strengthening through the northern winter, which could bring heat and dryness to Americas grain areas.
Rabobank also says global grain and oilseed stocks are high but balance sheets are tightening.
Tightening balance sheets combined with La Niña dryness risk in the Americas could lift corn and soybean prices. A stronger US dollar from rate increases would reduce US export competitiveness.
feedandgrain.comDec 1, 2020After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 13 past bearish weather events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
