
India's 10-year government bond yield fell nearly 10 basis points to 7.32% on Monday as crude prices dropped sharply, with Brent falling over 7% to $108.46 on hopes of a deal to end the US-Iran conflict. The rupee strengthened for a second straight session ahead of the US midterm elections.
The oil price slide on Iran diplomacy eases energy and freight costs that feed into feed and fertiliser prices, while a softer dollar supports importers' purchasing power.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.