Russian Grain Harvest to Fall 4.5 Mt Below Last Year

After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Oct 19, 2021Bumper grain harvest expected again this year+0.7%
• Jan 3, 2022CBH receives 20.4Mt in harvest to date - Grain Central-0.4%
• Jun 26, 2024EU's wheat harvest yields similar to the average of the last 5 years-2.0%
• Feb 23, 2018Late rain pushes growth in grain harvest | Farm Weekly | WA+1.9%
• Mar 30, 2017World grain output expected to fall as record 2016 harvest weighs on prices+0.4%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 30, 2017World grain output expected to fall as record 2016 harvest weighs on prices+0.9%
• Sep 30, 2022UPDATE 1-U.S. Wheat Harvest Falls Below Forecasts; Prices Rally+1.0%
• Dec 4, 2019USDA report: Grain, hay prices up during fall - Mid-West Farm Report-3.9%
• May 8, 2026World food prices rise to more than three year high in April, FAO says - Grainews+1.3%
• Jul 2, 2025US DDGS output falls 11% year-over-year in May | Feed & Grain-3.1%