ADNOC's CEO says nearly 1bln of bbls were drained from global inventories since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted and that the world has eroded its supply buffers, adds stocks of diesels in some markets are at 35yr lows for this time of the season

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 31, 2023US Diesel Supply Risks in the Era of Energy Security and Transition - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP %-10.4%
• Sep 15, 2026US diesel prices hit new all-time high amid global supply disruptions, strong demand | S&P Global-1.7%
• Oct 27, 2026Crisis in Strait of Hormuz will not be last of its kind : Singapore Energy Minister Tan warns of energy supply risks-3.9%
• Mar 5, 2026Asia refining margins rocket to highest in nearly 4 years on Hormuz supply disruption | Reuters+12.0%
• Oct 29, 2026IEA warns severe diesel supply crunch could grip markets into next year | World Ports Organization-2.4%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026Crude oil price near three-week high as UAE leaves OPEC; Strait of Hormuz disruption, US-Iran tension persist | Stock Market News-1.9%
• Oct 27, 2026Crisis in Strait of Hormuz will not be last of its kind : Singapore Energy Minister Tan warns of energy supply risks-3.8%
• Apr 1, 2026How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-12.2%
• Mar 5, 2026Asia refining margins rocket to highest in nearly 4 years on Hormuz supply disruption | Reuters+12.3%
• Oct 29, 2026IEA warns severe diesel supply crunch could grip markets into next year | World Ports Organization-5.4%