
Bunge kept its guidance for the year as soybean crush margins slipped, while AGCO cut its forecast because farm equipment demand fell to a decade low. Both companies cited record diesel costs, disrupted Black Sea and Middle East trade flows, and weak farm income as reasons for a cautious view of 2027.
Slimmer crush margins reduce the incentive to process soybeans, which lowers output of meal and oil and pressures soybean meal and soybean oil prices. Higher diesel costs and weaker farm income also point to tighter feed budgets for buyers.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.