China’s slow buying of US farm goods tests $17 billion trade pledge

After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2019China strikes back at U.S. with new tariffs on $75 billion in goods | Reuters+0.5%
• May 4, 2018Angst in farm belt after reports that China halted buying US soybeans+0.9%
• Oct 27, 2025After the Bell | Soybeans surge on trade deal news - Pro Farmer+0.2%
• May 29, 2024U.S. livestock: Cattle lower on technical trading, JBS-China export news - AgCanada-1.0%
• Dec 13, 2019U.S. agriculture wary of Trump's China sales pledge, more meat a must+0.8%

After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Feb 20, 2020China Back in the Market for U.S. Farm Goods After Waivers | Financial Post-1.8%
• Feb 12, 2019Financial, forex trading to be muted on looming US-China trade deadline-0.5%
• May 23, 2018U.S.-China trade row sows confusion in farmer planting plans-0.7%
• Mar 17, 2019U.S., China Trade Deal Cannot Be Taken for Granted | Farm Policy News | Illinois-0.6%
• Sep 1, 2021China’s bumper harvest may cool corn-buying binge, impact progress of US trade deal | South China Morning Post-2.2%

After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2018China targets $3 billion of US goods in tariff spat | AP News+1.9%
• Oct 17, 2024New US-China Trade War Could Cost Farmers Billions | Farm Policy News | Illinois+2.1%
• Aug 14, 2019Soybean prices rise on U.S.-China trade hopes | Financial Post-1.2%
• Sep 1, 2021China’s bumper harvest may cool corn-buying binge, impact progress of US trade deal | South China Morning Post-5.3%
• Jun 1, 2026Explainer: What do China's new US farm purchases mean for global trade?-5.5%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.