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An FT analysis of federal data finds the average US petrol price during Trump's second term will exceed $3.46 a gallon on November 2, surpassing the previous average high set under Biden. Fuel costs, which have risen since the Iran war began in February, are a political liability ahead of the midterm elections.
Sustained high retail fuel costs reflect tight crude and refined product supply tied to the Iran conflict, which keeps energy input costs elevated for feed producers and transport. Political pressure could influence policy responses on fuel supply.
ft.comMyles McCormick in Washington, Jamie Smyth in New YorkNov 2, 2026After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
