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Brent fell 1.95% to $111.20 and WTI fell 1.70% to $101.92 on Monday, even though two tankers were reportedly struck by mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The decline followed Iran's report that a Qatar-brokered proposal had been compressed into a two-day plan of US measures followed by a reopening of the strait.
OPEC+ kept its December output target unchanged for a third month.
The market is pricing out the supply-risk premium on the expectation of a Hormuz reopening, which would ease energy costs for feed. Physical attacks in the strait still leave the supply risk unresolved.
mitrade.comIrene Q.Nov 2, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
