OPEC Supply Rises as Iran Rebound Complicates Balancing Task

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Aug 2, 2025OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Another Bumper Supply Increase - Bloomberg-5.1%
• May 27, 2025Oil prices ease as US-Iran talks, OPEC+ plans spur supply concerns+0.9%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil Drops 15% as Leaders Move to Contain Supply Shock From Iran War - Bloomberg-1.3%
• Sep 21, 2018Exclusive - OPEC and allies consider oil output boost as Iranian supply falls: source | Reuters+1.9%
• Oct 29, 2026Oil falls as efforts to revive US-Iran talks ease supply concerns-2.3%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Aug 2, 2025OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Another Bumper Supply Increase - Bloomberg-4.6%
• May 27, 2025Oil prices ease as US-Iran talks, OPEC+ plans spur supply concerns+0.8%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil Drops 15% as Leaders Move to Contain Supply Shock From Iran War - Bloomberg+4.1%
• Sep 21, 2018Exclusive - OPEC and allies consider oil output boost as Iranian supply falls: source | Reuters+3.5%
• Oct 29, 2026Oil falls as efforts to revive US-Iran talks ease supply concerns-5.4%