OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Another Bumper Supply Increase

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Apr 1, 2021OPEC Supply Rises as Iran Rebound Complicates Balancing Task - Bloomberg-1.4%
• Jul 15, 2020OPEC agrees to ease oil output cut to 7.7 mbpd in Aug.+3.2%
• Jun 1, 2026OPEC Plus, in Symbolic Gesture, to Increase Oil Production+2.9%
• May 27, 2025Oil prices ease as US-Iran talks, OPEC+ plans spur supply concerns+0.8%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil Drops 15% as Leaders Move to Contain Supply Shock From Iran War - Bloomberg+4.1%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Apr 1, 2021OPEC Supply Rises as Iran Rebound Complicates Balancing Task - Bloomberg+0.7%
• Jul 15, 2020OPEC agrees to ease oil output cut to 7.7 mbpd in Aug.+3.8%
• May 27, 2025Oil prices ease as US-Iran talks, OPEC+ plans spur supply concerns+0.9%
• Jul 27, 2026Corn and Soybeans Fall on US Weather, Pause in US-Iran Strikes - Bloomberg-5.8%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil Drops 15% as Leaders Move to Contain Supply Shock From Iran War - Bloomberg-1.3%