OPEC agrees to ease oil output cut to 7.7 mbpd in Aug.

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Feb 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep oil output unchanged-1.6%
• Jun 30, 2020OPEC and Russia likely to ease output cuts in August – Reuters — Octa+2.3%
• Jul 16, 2020OPEC+ to ease production cuts in August | Oil & Gas Journal+1.7%
• Jul 15, 2020Opec+ to ease historic output curbs from August | The National+3.8%
• Mar 25, 2024Opec+ 7 agree another output target hike in August | Latest Market News+4.1%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Feb 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep oil output unchanged-3.1%
• Jun 30, 2020OPEC and Russia likely to ease output cuts in August – Reuters — Octa+3.0%
• Jul 16, 2020OPEC+ to ease production cuts in August | Oil & Gas Journal+0.6%
• Jul 15, 2020Opec+ to ease historic output curbs from August | The National+3.2%
• Mar 25, 2024Opec+ 7 agree another output target hike in August | Latest Market News+1.9%

After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.

• Feb 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep oil output unchanged-8.6%
• Jul 15, 2020OPEC and allies to ease cuts, allow more oil production | AP News+5.1%
• Jul 15, 2020OPEC+ to boost oil production next month | OPEC | Al Jazeera+5.1%
• Apr 8, 2026The Commodities Feed: Oil slumps below $100 after US, Iran agree to two-week ceasefire | ING THINK-17.1%
• Apr 13, 2026Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease on hopes for US-Iran talks - CNA-8.7%